voltcast · service status

Tomorrow's German power prices, forecast and graded every day

Each morning voltcast publishes a price for every quarter-hour of tomorrow's DE-LU day-ahead auction, before bidding closes at 12:00. That afternoon it scores itself against the prices that cleared. This page is rebuilt from the service's own records twice a day.

Updated 16 Oct, 20:05 CEST · status.json · Source and design

Forecast for Sat 17 Oct

Published

at 16 Oct, 09:00 CEST, before the auction

Error on Sat 17 Oct

43.01 EUR/MWh

mean absolute error of the published forecast (naive_1d)

Live record

2 days

since 16 Oct 2026 · 30-day MAE 33.43

AWS bill, October

$0.08

of a $5.00 monthly budget · forecast $0.08

How the last forecast did

Sat 17 Oct 2026: published forecast against the cleared price

Quarter-hour prices in EUR/MWh, Berlin time. Challengers ran in shadow; their errors are in the table.

  • Cleared price
  • Forecast (naive_1d)
Show the numbers
Berlin timeCleared priceForecast (naive_1d)
00:00209.27219.35
00:15206.53201.68
00:30199.67186.12
00:45186.05179.23
01:00197.82193.55
01:15186.03186.12
01:30179.25187.45
01:45170.64187.82
02:00174.31191.33
02:15170.09190.79
02:30163.96190.15
02:45156.37190.23
03:00154.64197.72
03:15152.57194.60
03:30151.83189.48
03:45150.54188.86
04:00149.65196.55
04:15149.57191.05
04:30149.78190.66
04:45150.97191.28
05:00155.69184.69
05:15155.83186.45
05:30151.67191.12
05:45148.87201.69
06:00147.03201.17
06:15149.11222.37
06:30150.30243.39
06:45154.46254.68
07:00157.42247.77
07:15162.37249.37
07:30167.96252.11
07:45173.09254.15
08:00188.86277.76
08:15190.06271.83
08:30188.73261.65
08:45179.30247.04
09:00179.47289.07
09:15170.22256.31
09:30169.06243.30
09:45163.53216.52
10:00173.36248.81
10:15160.39231.90
10:30160.16212.03
10:45150.67199.99
11:00151.23218.57
11:15145.60204.00
11:30142.33194.79
11:45138.24182.30
12:00132.69179.38
12:15125.04173.46
12:30125.65166.95
12:45120.67160.51
13:00124.80159.48
13:15118.40151.65
13:30119.21147.70
13:45118.34145.04
14:00123.23152.64
14:15122.39158.76
14:30129.48159.65
14:45127.53166.40
15:00136.99166.53
15:15139.09173.26
15:30150.15175.40
15:45151.63192.86
16:00152.85175.85
16:15155.23187.14
16:30162.68211.55
16:45196.98236.68
17:00168.75220.45
17:15200.19242.11
17:30207.01252.19
17:45219.86256.20
18:00209.99243.41
18:15210.89250.09
18:30216.84259.16
18:45236.00265.74
19:00245.43259.84
19:15242.65268.50
19:30235.99269.24
19:45215.66254.66
20:00212.78259.06
20:15197.73253.39
20:30195.92240.87
20:45196.19234.99
21:00207.99243.33
21:15200.21224.25
21:30177.73210.74
21:45165.29193.35
22:00179.40214.95
22:15166.40207.22
22:30175.35203.40
22:45161.77196.94
23:00161.40203.37
23:15160.61201.05
23:30162.87189.97
23:45155.24175.63

Errors on Sat 17 Oct 2026 (EUR/MWh)

ModelRoleMAERMSEBias
naive_1dchampion43.0148.4242.40
seasonal_naive_7dchallenger117.19123.38−117.19

Track record

Daily mean absolute error, last 2 live days

EUR/MWh; lower is better. Every model is scored every day, published or not.

  • naive_1d
  • seasonal_naive_7d
Show the numbers
Delivery daynaive_1dseasonal_naive_7d
Fri 16 Oct23.84132.09
Sat 17 Oct43.01117.19
WindowModelDaysMAERMSEBias
Since going livenaive_1d233.4339.089.52
seasonal_naive_7d2124.64128.82−124.64

Averages of daily errors over live forecasts only. The year-long replay that set the bar is in the README.

What's running

Published model
naive_1d v1 · Same slot on the most recent published day.
In shadow
seasonal_naive_7d
Code
a905108
Latest forecast made
16 Oct, 09:00 CEST for Sat 17 Oct 2026
Inputs it read (1)
  • curated/day_ahead_price/DE-LU/2026-10-16.json sha256 dd5a9e197cca…

What it costs

MonthAWS bill (USD)
October 2026 (so far)$0.08

The whole AWS account, which runs only voltcast, against a $5.00 monthly budget. The voltcast-monthly budget in AWS Budgets also emails on-call if actual or forecast spend passes the limit. Figures update once a day.